Top Four Tips to Master Picking NBA Winners
The National Basketball Association (NBA) is the most widely bet on professional sports league in the world. It’s not even close, as the NFL falls significantly behind the NBA. In fact, it is estimated that 90% of all bets placed on North American professional sports leagues are placed on NBA games.
There are several reasons why this is the case. The popularity of the sport has risen dramatically over the past decade and with that has come a lot more interest in betting on the games.
Another reason is that basketball lends itself well to statistical analysis. With a larger sample size, than say baseball and hockey, there is more data available to determine trends and make winning picks against the point spread or money line.
Lastly, because of this increase in interest there are so many more resources and tools available to bettors today than ever before. If you want to know how many points a team scores per game at home vs away, or how different teams perform against each other, or even how well players perform after they take a day off; it’s all out there for you to see and calculate for yourself.
Here are our top four tips for mastering picking winners in the NBA:
Picking an NBA Winner is a skill that anyone can learn. In fact, anyone can be an expert at it if they follow these top four tips.
First, look to see if a team is playing on the road or at home.
Second, look to see how many days of rest a team has had since their last game.
Third, look at how much total travel the team has to do during their upcoming games (and against how much rest they will have).
Fourth, look at the percentage of games a team has won by double digits over the past month and compare that to their opponent’s record in games decided by 10 points or fewer.
We’re only at the midway point of the NBA season, but there have been plenty of surprises. The Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets are atop the Western Conference standings. The Philadelphia 76ers are in the thick of things in the Eastern Conference playoff race. And Anthony Davis is somehow averaging nearly 30 points per game for a team in contention for a top-five draft pick.
But which teams should you bet on? If you’re looking for NBA picks, we’ve got some advice for you. Here are our top four tips for choosing NBA winners and maximizing your winnings this season.
1. Don’t Overreact to Recent Results
It’s tempting to believe that recent trends will continue into the future when making your selections, but don’t fall into that trap. As odd as it may sound, teams tend to revert back to their averages and perform more like they did early in the year than they have lately when playing new opponents.
2. Consider Home/Road Splits
It’s well documented that home teams have a sizable advantage over road teams in basketball, but how much does it really matter? In fact, it matters quite a bit considering how many games each team plays at home versus on the road during an 82-game schedule.
3. Include In
The NBA is the most predictable of all major sports. It’s also the most popular league among sports bettors. This creates a lot of line value and opportunities to find edges over the oddsmakers on a nightly basis. The problem with betting on the NBA is that lines move really quickly, which makes it tough to find good value if you don’t have an edge. The general public likes to bet on favorites and overs in the NBA, so if you can learn how to take advantage of that tendency, you can often find good underdog picks or under bets.
Here are some tips for finding those edges:
Know your stuff — You need to know what are the numbers that impact games and how much they impact them. For example, a team that plays at a fast pace tends to score more points than a team that plays at a slow pace. If two teams play each other and one is slow and one is fast, you know there will be more possessions in the game which should mean more scoring. Now you just need to figure out by how much, adjust for opponent strength, and then compare that projection to the total posted by oddsmakers.
Get live spreads — The first place to look for line value is in off-market lines (lines not
The fourth quarter of the NBA season is here, and it’s crunch time for teams trying to get into the playoffs. Some are in, but still positioning themselves for home court advantage. Others are on the bubble, hoping to find that last little spark that gets them over the hump.
And then there are those teams that have been out of contention for weeks, if not months. For them, it’s all about player development and finding something to build on for next season.
For bettors, though, it’s all about trying to figure out which players or teams give you the best chance to cash in. Here are four tips to help you do just that down the stretch.
The NBA season is underway, and while we all have our favorite teams and players its even more exciting to go out on a limb and pick an underdog. Since the start of the season, I’ve been trying to pick the winners of every game. As of now I am over .500, which means that I’ve picked a decent amount of underdogs (or at least not quite as many favorites as I should).
I’ve picked enough games now to have come up with some rules-of-thumb for picking winners. Here’s what I’ve learned so far:
The NBA is the premier professional basketball league in the world. The NBA has the highest average attendance of any sports leagues in the world, and is broadcasted in 215 countries and territories in forty-nine languages. It is also very popular among sports bettors.
There are several ways to pick winners for NBA games. One way is to use the point spreads. Most Las Vegas casinos post spreads on every game, so that fans can bet on a team if they think that it will win by more points than the spread indicates or lose by fewer points than the spread indicates. For example, a sports book may post odds such as this:
Boston Celtics -7.5
Miami Heat +7.5
In this example, if you were betting on Boston, they would have to win by 8 or more points to cover your bet, while Miami would need to lose by less than 8 points or win the game outright to cover their bet. These types of bets are called “Against The Spread” (ATS) bets because you are betting against a point spread set by a casino and not on just whether a team will win or lose.