NFL Odds for Week 7: The Standings are Shifting, So Are the Odds to Win It All:
There were two big surprises in the NFL this weekend.
The first was how inconsistent the standings were. The Packers beat the Jaguars by 14 points and won by 11, which is not consistent with the biggest favorites. The Lions beat the Rams by 16 and won by 28, which is very consistent with a favorite. The Patriots beat the Steelers at home by 12 but lost in overtime on a missed field goal, which is inconsistent with an underdog. The Giants beat the Falcons by 21 and won by 3, which is not consistent with either an underdog or a favorite.
The second surprise is that we have slowed down so much. Last week there were five upsets, but this time there are none: no teams have fallen out of first place. Seven teams are now tied for first place, and there are many more games where one team has a slight lead over another.
It seems like it would be another year of upsets if you just look at things one at a time; it’s getting close to last year’s record when there were only two upsets in each of two weeks. But take a broader view, and it’s much less
The playoffs have started, teams have played their first and second games, the odds to win the superbowl are changing. Which means it’s time to make a prediction. The Seahawks, who I predicted would win the superbowl a week ago and then lost in the first round, are now tied with the Patriots for 1st place in the AFC. The Broncos are 2nd, and we’ll see how they do this week against Atlanta. The Broncos had a big game last week and should be able to beat the Falcons at home, but I still don’t expect them to win it all.
The Patriots are still my favorite pick. They have been playing great defense recently, and even though they won’t be able to run the ball too much against Philly, they should be able to handle them. New England’s offense is more than capable of getting by Philly on the ground or through the air.
I am also excited about Seattle’s chances this week because of their opponent: San Diego will try to rely on Philip Rivers having a good game if they want to take down Seattle, but this is also an outside shot because of how good San Diego’s defense is.”
“The regular season has already come and gone, so here are my Super Bowl predictions for this year
My uncle Joe’s favorite casino was the Midway in Chicago. He used to say that if you were gambling with him, you were either a friend or a fool.
I would rather see the Giants win the superbowl than see them win the Super Bowl for Team USA. Which is saying something about their odds given that they are 8-3 against the spread and 7-1 against the number. So what is going on?
A lot of people think this will be another year of blowouts, and in some ways it probably will be. In other ways, it could be more interesting than usual. The Patriots have gotten great play from their defense all year, but they’ve been doing that with a lot of luck. Is there enough left in their offense to overcome a bad day from Tom Brady?
The Packers are also 8-3 against the spread and 7-1 against number – with just one loss on the road. They too have played well defensively all year but could use a little luck on offense as well. Their star WR Randall Cobb has been out since Week 1 and QB Aaron Rodgers hasn’t looked right since he landed on his shoulder after a hit in Week 6.
With so many teams tied up at 8-3 or better through six weeks
The NFL season is a long one, and this week the oddsmakers adjusted their lines. The Patriots and Colts are tied for first place with identical records, but the Patriots have the lead because they beat the Colts earlier this season. The Eagles are third in the standings and have yet to lose a game.
This has led to an interesting debate about whether it makes sense to bet on individual games. Two weeks ago, I recommended that handicappers take advantage of a huge discrepancy in the line between Dallas and Washington, who were tied for last place in the standings. Since then, however, that game has been moved up to second in importance over these next two weeks because of the tie-breaking effect of better records in their head-to-head matchups.
That game is now just about unmarketable because the lines have changed so much since I wrote that article. In other words, my advice turned out to be bad advice.
But what if you’re looking not just at which team will win this week but also how it would affect the odds of each team winning it all? That’s exactly what I’m doing right now by betting all or part of my personal fortune on them both winning: Dallas (a $500 bet pays $2,500) and
This post is a guest post from the website Odds Shark . There are three possible outcomes to each NFL game. You can win, lose or draw. You can also win or lose against the spread. Sometimes the odds change between games due to the teams getting better or worse. Sometimes they change slightly because of some new information that may have been released during the week.
So, the spread can allay some concerns about a team, but in this case, it didn’t seem to be enough. For example, it was interesting that after watching Cincinnati play at Denver last weekend, Denver’s odds went from +1.5 to -1.5 against the spread.
The odds for who will win Super Bowl 50 has also increased from 47% to 52%. The odds for who will win Super Bowl 51 has also increased from 37% to 41%. That’s very interesting and a real sign of progress for our sport.
If you watched any NFL regular season game this past week, you heard about the injury to Cam Newton and how he could be out with 2-3 weeks at most and that could really help some other teams like Seattle (+1) and New England (+2).
Now, I’m not saying Seattle or New England are any good this season or
The Patriots entered the season as a heavy favorite to win the Super Bowl. They were expected to finish first in the AFC East, they were favored to win their division by seven points, and they were only a couple points from being a favorite to win the Super Bowl (which would have been at +160).
They won three of their first four games, including an easy home victory over the Jets. Then, for no obvious reason, they lost their next two games by a combined 22 points. After that point, it was hard for anyone to argue with the conclusion that New England had peaked.
The Patriots had not won fewer than 11 games in any of the previous six seasons, but this year they were not even certain to make the playoffs. Their odds to win the Super Bowl started out as roughly 10%. By week 9 they were down to 4%, and by week 10 they finished at 3%. In other words, everyone had begun betting against them.
It was even worse for some other teams. The Packers’ odds of winning the Super Bowl started at -150 — meaning that on average if you bet $100 on them you’d get back $150 — but by week 11 they had fallen to -250. They would surely be eliminated before trying again next year
The odds for the Super Bowl are still in favor of the Seahawks, who are 1/3