Fantasy Football is back! Am I drafting the wrong QBs?
With the start of the 2015 NFL season just a week away, fantasy football drafts are beginning to take place. One of the most important positions in fantasy football is quarterback. Though it can be tempting to pick a great QB early, this is not necessarily the best strategy for winning your league. For example, it is not uncommon for Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck to be taken as one of the top 2 or 3 picks in a draft. Below I will plot what I believe to be an average draft position (ADP) graph for quarterbacks in 2015, which shows a typical ranking of quarterbacks based on an aggregation of expert rankings from various websites such as ESPN and CBS Sports.
As you can see, Rodgers and Luck are ranked in the top 3 picks by all experts except for ESPN. This means that drafting these players at their ADP could put you at a disadvantage compared to other teams in your league since you may have missed out on some great players that were available at other positions earlier in the draft. Instead, if you wait until near the end of the draft to pick your QB, you can still get some solid players without missing out on other key positions. Some good options that could be available late
Fantasy Football is back! Am I drafting the wrong QBs?
I’ll be the first to admit, I haven’t been as big a fan of fantasy football as I used to be. My interest has waned significantly and I barely even looked at last year’s stats. But this year, my interest has been renewed thanks to the excitement around the upcoming NFL season.
For those who don’t know, fantasy football is basically a game where you put together a roster of players from different teams and compete against other teams based on how well your players do in real life games.
Of course, this got me thinking about data science… how can we use it to help us pick our fantasy team? How can we use it to increase our chances of winning?
In this blog post, I will show you how I grabbed some data from ESPN and ran some basic analyses on it.
The first thing we need is data! Luckily for us, ESPN has made it easy for us. They have an API that allows us to query their website with different options and get back the results in JSON format.
To save time and headaches, ESPN has provided an example script in their documentation that uses Python’
The NFL season is upon us and Fantasy Football is back! Another year of endless research, debates, and frustration that comes with the draft. And while some of you may be in 8-10 team leagues, the majority of us are in 14-16 team leagues. The depth at each position is a lot different when there are 200+ players to choose from versus 50+.
For example, there are plenty of QBs like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees etc who consistently put up good numbers on a weekly basis and will most likely be drafted in the top 50 picks (assuming points per reception [PPR] leagues). But there are also plenty of other guys like Joe Flacco who should put up similar numbers but will most likely go undrafted.
So I thought it would be interesting to ask if we are drafting our QBs too early when there are so many options available later in the draft.
Fantasy Football is back! For many fantasy football players, last season was a disaster. You probably had a stud QB like Aaron Rodgers, who went down early with an injury. Your backup QB was just as bad. So you went to the waiver wire and grabbed some scrub like Shaun Hill (who actually did pretty well).
Well, it’s a new year and a new season. And this year, you are going to dominate your league. It is time to draft the perfect team.
But how do you know which players will be great this year?
In this article, I will show you a few ways that can help you make better decisions for your fantasy football team. I will focus on quarterbacks because they are the most important position in fantasy football. A bad QB can ruin your season — even more so than a bad running back or wide receiver (RB/WR).
As you all know, fantasy football is back! The first pre-season game was on Thursday night, and I don’t know about you but I am getting excited for the season to start. As always, there are many questions about how to approach the upcoming season. Some of the main ones this year are: how do we evaluate Jacoby Brissett with Andrew Luck out? What can we expect from Carson Wentz in his second year? Can Brock Osweiler be successful without DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller? However, the question I am most curious about is: what has happened to quarterbacks in general?
As you can see in the above graph (created using data from Yahoo), there has been a general decline in quarterbacks scoring from 2012 to 2016. This trend is not just limited to total points, but all categories of points as well.
In the 2016 football season, Aaron Rodgers had a historic year. He led the NFL in touchdowns with 40 and was second only to Matt Ryan in passing yards with 4,428. The Packers went 10-6 and made the playoffs, but they weren’t expected to go much further than that. After their first game of the 2017 season against the Seahawks, Rodgers left with a broken collarbone and was ruled out for the rest of the season.
The Packers went on to finish 7-9 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2008. This was an unsurprising result, as their backup quarterback Brett Hundley wasn’t able to lead them to victory once in his nine starts. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns, coming away with a dismal touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9:12. These numbers left fantasy owners who drafted Aaron Rodgers in limbo, wondering if they would get any value out of him at all that season.
This is a problem that comes up every year during fantasy football drafts: what to do when you have a “sure thing” start out strong but then suffer an injury? To me, this is one of those situations where it becomes increasingly important to remain calm. There’s a tendency in
The first rounds of fantasy drafts were about as predictable as you would expect. The top three picks were Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles and after that the first round was a little more interesting with Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte and Jimmy Graham.
I had the fifth pick in my draft and I went with Aaron Rodgers. This is a pick that has been mocked by many people around the internet and even by some of my friends. Many people believe I should have drafted either Jimmy Graham or Calvin Johnson. I have argued that Rodgers is still the best QB in football, but let’s see if there is some truth to these claims.
I calculated the average fantasy points per game for each position using both ESPN’s standard scoring settings (1 pt for every 10 yards rushing/receiving, 1 pt for every 25 yards passing, 4 points for all TDs, 1 point for all FGs) and PPR settings (1 pt per reception). I also used data from 2012-2014 since 2012 was Rodgers last healthy season when he won his second MVP award.